Recent estimates of tax avoidance and offshore wealth

 Explore recent estimates of the scale of tax avoidance, tax evasion and offshore wealth. Compare estimates across countries, download figures and underlying data or learn more about the methodological approaches used by different researchers.

The Tax Observatory's literature summaries

In this section, you find summaries of recent empirical research on corporate tax avoidance and tax evasion by individuals. Our selection covers reports, working papers and peer-reviewed articles which analyse the scale and channels of tax avoidance and evasion, evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures or assess new policy proposals.

1. Corporate tax avoidance

1.1. The scale of tax avoidance

  • Álvarez-Martínez et al. (2021): How large is corporate tax base erosion and profit shifting? A general equilibrium approach [summary]
  • Bilicka (2019): Comparing UK tax returns of foreign multinationals to matched domestic firms [summary]
  • Bratta, Santomarino & Acciari (2021): Assessing profit shifting using country-by-country reports: a non-linear response to tax rate differentials [summary]
  • Cobham & Janský (2019): Global distribution of revenue loss from tax avoidance: re-estimation and country results [summary]
  • Clausing (2016): The Effect of Profit Shifting on the Corporate Tax Base in the United States and Beyond [summary]
  • Crivelli, De Mooij, Keen (2015): Base erosion, profit shifting and developing countries [summary]
  • Dyreng, Hills & Markle (2022):Tax deficits and the income shifting of U.S. multinationals [summary]
  • Fatica & Gregori (2020): How much profit shifting do European banks do? [summary]
  • Fuest, Hugger & Neumeier (2022): Corporate profit shifting and the role of tax havens: Evidence from German country-by-country reporting data [summary]
  • García-Bernardo & Janský (2021): Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide [summary]
  • Janský & Palanský (2019): Estimating the scale of profit shifting and tax revenue losses related to foreign direct investment [summary]
  • Tørsløv, Wier, Zucman (2020): The missing profits of nations [summary]
  • Wier & Reynolds (2018): Big and ‘unprofitable’: How 10% of multinational firms do 98% of profit shifting [summary]

1.2. Channels of tax avoidance

  • Baumann et al. (2020): Corporate taxes, patent shifting, and anti-avoidance rules [summary]
  • Cristea & Nguyen (2017): Transfer pricing by multinational firms: new evidence from foreign firm ownerships [summary]
  • Hopland et al. (2018): Flexibility in income shifting under losses [summary]
  • Huesecken & Overesch (2019): Tax avoidance through advance tax rulings – evidence from the LuxLeaks firms [summary]
  • Johansson et al. (2017): Tax planning by multinational firms [summary]
  • Reiter et al. (2021): Avoiding taxes: banks’ use of internal debt [summary]

1.3. Countermeasures to corporate tax avoidance

  • Bilicka et al. (2021): Real responses to anti-tax avoidance: evidence from the UK worldwide debt Cap [summary]
  • Clausing et al. (2021): Ending corporate tax avoidance and tax competition: a plan to collect the tax deficit of multinationals [summary]
  • Dutt et al. (2019): Can European banks’ country-by-country reports reveal profit shifting? An analysis of the information content of EU banks’ disclosures [summary]
  • EU Tax Observatory (2021): The implementation of the Global Minimum Tax in the EU – a note on legal controversies [summary]
  • Janský et al. (2022): Hide-seek-hide? The effects of financial secrecy on cross-border financial assets [summary]
  • Schenkelberg (2019): The Cadbury Schweppes judgment and its implications on profit shifting activities within Europe [summary]

1.4. Effects of corporate tax avoidance

  • Souillard (2022): Profit shifting, employee pay, and inequalities: evidence from US-listed companies [summary]

 

2. Tax evasion by individuals

2.1. The scale of tax evasion by individuals

  • Alstadsaeter et al. (2018): Who owns the wealth in tax havens? Macro evidence and implications for global inequality [summary]
  • Alstadsaeter et al. (2019): Tax evasion and inequality [summary]
  • ECORYS (2021): Monitoring the amount of wealth hidden by individuals in international financial centres [summary]
  • Guyton et al. (2021): Tax evasion at the top of the income distribution: theory and evidence [summary]
  • Leenders et al. (2020): Offshore tax evasion and wealth inequality: evidence from a tax amnesty in the Netherlands [summary]
  • Pellegrini et al. (2016): What do external statistics tell us about undeclared assets held abroad and tax evasion? [summary]
  • Tax Justice Network (2020): The state of tax justice 2020: tax justice in the time of COVID-19 [summary]
  • Tax Justice Network (2021): The state of tax justice 2021 [summary]
  • Vellutini et al. (2019): Estimating international tax evasion by individuals [summary]

2.2. Channels of tax evasion

  • Ahrens et al. (2020): A victim of regulatory arbitrage? Automatic exchange of information and the use of golden visas and corporate shells [summary]
  • Cockfield (2016): Breaking bad: what does the first major tax haven leak tell us? [summary]
  • Collin (2021): What lies beneath: evidence from leaked account data on how elites use offshore banking [summary]
  • Helgadóttir (2020): The new luxury freeports: offshore storage, tax avoidance, and ‘invisible’ art [summary]
  • Langenmayr & Zyska (2021): Escaping the exchange of information: tax evasion via citizenship-by-investment [summary]

2.3. Countermeasures

  • Balakina et al. (2016): Bank secrecy in offshore centres and capital flows: does blacklisting matter? [summary]
  • Beer et al. (2019): Hidden treasure: the impact of automatic exchange of information on cross-border tax evasion [summary]
  • Casi et al. (2020): Cross-border tax evasion after the Common Reporting Standard: game over? [summary]
  • Casi, Gavrilova, Murphy & Zoutman (2022): Welfare effect of closing loopholes in the dividend-withholding tax: The case of Cum-Cum and Cum-Ex transactions [summary]
  • De Simone et al. (2019): Transparency and tax evasion: evidence from the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) [summary]
  • Johannesen (2014): Tax evasion and Swiss bank deposits [summary]
  • Johannesen & Stolper (2017): The deterrence effect of whistleblowing – an event study of leaked customer information from banks in tax havens [summary]

 

3. Offshore real estate

  • Agarwal, Chia and Sing (2020): Straw purchase or safe haven? The hidden perils of illicit wealth in property markets [summary]
  • Alstadtsæter, Økland, Planterose & Zucman (2022): Who Owns Offshore Real Estate? Evidence from Dubai [summary]
  • Alstadtsæter & Økland (2022): Hidden in Plain Sight: Offshore Ownership of Norwegian Real Estate [summary]
  • Badarinza & Ramadorai (2018): Home Away from Home? Foreign Demand and London House Prices [summary]
  • Bomare & Herry (2022): Will we ever be able to track offshore wealth? Evidence from the offshore real estate market in the UK [summary]
  • Collin, Hollenbach, and Szakonyi. (2022): The Impact of Beneficial Ownership Transparency on Illicit Purchases of U.S. Property [summary]
  • Cvijanovic & Spaenjers (2020): “We’ll Always Have Paris”: Out-of-Country Buyers in the Housing Market [summary]
  • Johannesen, Miethe, & Weishaar (2022): Homes Incorporated: Offshore Ownership of Real Estate in the UK [summary]
  • Miethe, Peichl & Trautvetter (2022): Die Rolle von anonymen Immobilieneigentümern am deutschen Immobilienmarkt: Erste Ergebnisse einer systematischen Datenauswertung [summary]
  • Morel & Uri (2021): The increase in real estate investments made by non-residents is driven by expatriates [summary]
  • Sá (2016): The Effect of Foreign Investors on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from the UK [summary]

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